New modelling published by WinGD and supported by broader industry analysis indicates that large‑scale retrofits of existing ships for low‑ and zero‑carbon fuels can be financially attractive only if the incentive structure within IMO’s forthcoming Net‑Zero Framework matches or exceeds planned penalty levels for non‑compliance. With remedial prices in the range of USD 100–380 per tonne of CO₂‑equivalent under discussion for ships exceeding GHG intensity limits from 2028, experts argue that rewards for zero and near‑zero emission fuels need to be at a comparable magnitude to drive investment. Otherwise, shipowners may opt for minimal adaptation rather than transformative upgrades, slowing decarbonization of the legacy fleet.
According to an analysis released on September 1, 2026, engine designer WinGD has modelled multiple retrofit pathways for existing vessels, assessing how conversions to low‑ and zero‑carbon fuels could pay off under different regulatory and market conditions. The study compares the capital and operating costs of retrofits with prospective policy incentives under the IMO’s under‑development Net‑Zero Framework, where price levels for Remedial Units purchased by non‑compliant ships are already being discussed in the range of USD 100–380 per tonne of CO₂‑equivalent for different tiers of GHG intensity shortfalls in the 2028–2030 period. WinGD concludes that for retrofits to become a mainstream decarbonization strategy rather than isolated pilots, the reward mechanism for zero‑ and near‑zero‑emission fuels must operate at a similar economic scale to these penalties, thereby creating a robust business case for deep technical upgrades.
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