Classification society DNV estimates that adopting and fully implementing the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework could increase demand for low‑emission marine fuels by more than five times by mid‑century compared with a regulatory gridlock scenario. In its latest Maritime Forecast to 2050, DNV contrasts four regulatory pathways and concludes that the fate of the IMO climate regime will be a decisive factor for investment strategies of shipowners and fuel suppliers.
In its latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 report, classification society DNV assesses how different climate‑policy outcomes would shape demand for low‑ and zero‑carbon marine fuels. According to figures reported by maritime media, under a scenario where the IMO’s Net‑Zero Framework (NZF) — combining a global fuel standard and an economic measure that prices emissions — is adopted broadly in its current form, ships could consume around 33 million tonnes of oil equivalent of low‑emission fuels by 2030 and roughly 185 million tonnes by 2050. By contrast, in a scenario of prolonged regulatory stalemate at IMO, with decarbonisation driven mainly by regional schemes, demand would reach only about 4 million tonnes by 2030 and 33 million tonnes by 2050.
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